Stats of Facts?

One of my most controversial takes is that statistics aren't real. When I was watching Star Wars, at one point c3po was giving the odds of surviving an asteroid field much to Han Solo's irritation.

But Han had a reason to be angry, the predictability of his attempt can only be compared if you assume that the former pilots had the same factors as Han. Statistics are so much more complicated than most people realize, to the point where the same statistics can be used to present both sides of an argument.

Elon has no possible way of saying xAi has a 10% likelihood of success. It is not possible to have data about something that does not exist. It rings as hollow as saying that self driving will be here next quarter. When experts all across the field agree that artificial general intelligence is a way off, and that our current methods will not get there, Elon still promises Mars for a bit of extra cash...

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/xai-all-hands-agi-superintelligence-funding-success-optimus-space